It's been only six races so far, but silly season started way earlier already, so let's get all the rumours about next season combined in this thread. I'll try to give an overview of the current and latest developments.

Names underlined - confirmed
Names in bold - sure to be in the class
Names in italic - shakey

Malboro Ducati
Casey Stoner - Confirmed. Has already signed the contract for next year, but without a salary raise, so he'll re-negotiate at the end of next season.
Nicky Hayden - Confirmed. Seems to get more backing from the factory that Melandri did last year, so he might get another year, but when the results stay like this, it is possible that he could get kicked out and maybe be replaced by Mika Kallio.
UPDATE: Hayden confirmed to stay.

Fiat Yamaha
Valentino Rossi - Confirmed. Is sure to do at least one more season with them.
Jorge Lorenzo - Confirmed. Has not yet signed another contract, but reiterates that he likes to stay with the team and considering his results they wouldn't have anything against that. Even though there are rumours of him possibly going to Honda, I don't buy it and think he'll definitely stay where he is.
UPDATE - Both Honda riders confirmed, so Lorenzo poised to stay where he is.
UPDATE - Lorenzo confirmed.

Repsol Honda
Dani Pedrosa - Confirmed. Much talks about his future, but except possibly going to Suzuki (unlikely) there are not that many options for a rider of his stature (no pun intended), so I'm pretty sure he stays where he is.
Andrea Dovizioso - Confirmed. Has a good season so far, nothing outstanding, but solid results considering the untouchable Top 3/4 always occupying the front. Will most likely stay.
UPDATE - Both riders confirmed for next two years in Brno.

Rizla Suzuki
Alvaro Bautista - Confirmation in Brno.
Loris Capirossi - Looks increasingly likely to stay for another season and get the start record with Suzuki.
Chris Vermeulen - Almost guaranteed to be out of the class next year. Paul Denning has not said much about him yet while occasionally pointing out that they like to continue with Loris. Also, they are eager to sign a highly featured Rookie, because they can.
UPDATE - Confirmation Alvaro.
UPDATE - Confirmation split with Vermeulen.
UPDATE - Confirmation Capirossi.

LCR Honda
Randy De Puniet - Confirmed. His contract runs out at the end of the season, but so far he's been doing a good job. Since the factory seats are more or less taken, he might re-sign with the team. A second LCR bike is unlikely.
UPDATE - LCR press person saying that De Puniet will securely go to Tech3, team trying to sign Barbera or Bati now.
UPDATE - Team has option to run two bikes next year, possibly one for Aoyama.
UPDATE - Confirmation De Puniet.

Gresini Honda
Marco Simoncelli - Confirmation in Assen.
Marco Melandri - Confirmation in Brno.
Toni Elias - With a factory supported bike he's not had the expected results so far and he seems a bit unhappy, openly voicing discontent with Honda. He might switch teams, but there are not many places he could go to.
Alex De Angelis - Seems to have a strong stand in the team and even when the results don't come he seems to be the rider the team would most likely keep. His nationality also helps.
UPDATE - Confirmation of Hairball and several rumours indicate that De Angelis' seat is far from secure. Marco Melandri looks to become the second Gresini rider.
UPDATE - Melandri confirmed.

Scot Racing Team
Yuki Takahashi - With rumours that he might have been completely replaced by Talmacsi for the rest of the season, he's unlikely to stay in the team or the class. Most likely replacement seems to be Aoyama, who currently looks strong in 250cc, has a long-standing relationship with Honda and would fulfill their Japanese rider quota.
Gabor Talmacsi - Came into the class against the will of the manufacturers who now have to supply two more bikes and more tyres for him. With a possible Aspar Honda team next year it is highly unlikely that Scot Honda can continue with two bikes, so Talma's best chance would probably be a seperate satellite team with Hungarian sponsors or if he can get some surprising results this season possibly a move to another satellite team. Not sure about his rookie status next season.
UPDATE - Takahashi permanently out of the team.
UPDATE - Team could possibly run a second bike next season, leaving a possible spot for Aoyama.

Tech 3 Yamaha
Colin Edwards - Confirmed. Herve Poncharal said that the team can and will not continue with both of their current riders next year and Colin currently looks like the one who is to stay. He might also go back to WSBK though and his future at Tech3 is far from certain, but Poncharal said more than once that he'd like to keep working with Colin, and his current results are good enough.
Ben Spies - Confirmed in Estoril
James Toseland - Is most likely to not continue with the team next year. His manager already had a look for available rides in WSBK, but Toseland's main target will be staying in the class. He could possibly get another satellite ride next season (or Suzuki), but would have to up his results during contract time.
UPDATE: LCR saying that De Puniet already has a seat with Tech3 for next season.
UPDATE - Edwards almost confirmed.
UPDATE - Spies confirmed.

Pramac Ducati
Mika Kallio - Confirmed. If he keeps improving at the current rate and Nicky on the other hand doesn't, he looks prone to take the factory seat next season. Another year with Pramac is not unlikely either though, he seems to be able to handle the bike well. With some good results he might also get offers from other teams, but I figure that Ducati would then be eager to keep him, in order to show that more than just one person can ride that bike.
Aleix Espargaro - Semi-confirmed in Portugal, official announcement to follow in Australia.

Niccolo Canepa - Has not yet set the world on fire, but understandably so. Ducati supports him a lot and unlike in their factory team, he has no pressure to perform excellence every weekend, but rather learn the circuits and the class itself. With a few more Top Ten results and good showings throughout the season, I think they might support him enough to keep him in the satellite team for next year, especially since nobody else even wants to get close to that bike.
UPDATE - Ducati want to keep Kallio, Pramac only place now after Hayden confirmation.

Onde 2000 / Francisco Hernando Ducati - Aspar Ducati
Hector Barbera
Sete Gibernau - Together with Loris he could create the oldie club next season. If he can get a few decent results and show that he's still capable to do great things in MotoGP, especially from the physical point of view, I think he's mad enough to do another season. And the current sponsor brings enough money to keep the team running. If he decides to retire for good at the end of the season, I think the team will be history as well, although maybe Gabor can take the 5th Ducati and create a Hungarian team with it.
UPDATE - Gibernau and team permanently out this season, Aspar taking over the bike for next year.
UPDATE - Barbera confirmed for Aspar Ducati.

Hayata Racing
Marco Melandri - He definitely triggered some interest from other teams with his great results so far. And since Kawasaki still didn't cough up some more parts for development, I doubt that this team will still exist next season. The most likely option for Marco would be a satellite Honda team as he also had an offer last year, but decided in favour of Kawasaki. General consent is that he's most likely to become the second Marco at Gresini Honda.
UPDATE - Kawasaki sure to pull out of the championship at the end of season.
UPDATE - Suddenly not so sure to pull out, possibly running the new spec Honda engines next season as guinea pigs.


Additional Teams

Aspar Team
Yet to be confirmed, Yamaha is out of the picture, only leaving Honda and Ducati as choices. Ducati would probably be more willing to offer an extra bike, but Honda looks to be the safer option. Possibly announcement in Assen.
UPDATE - Confirmed in Donington. Aspar Ducati contract for next two years.
UPDATE - Barbera confirmed as rider, one-year contract with option.

Caffe Latte Honda with Lüthi
Team boss Epp doesn't care about Moto2, Lüthi wants to move up, the relations with Honda are good, the sponsor money is plenty, a new team with one rider is a very possible option.
UPDATE - Team looks a bit more unlikely by now, mainly due to financial reasons.
UPDATE - Team will run with Hiroshi Aoyama

Movers who can shake things up:

Alvaro Bautista - UPDATE: Confirmed for Suzuki.

Marco Simoncelli - UPDATE: Confirmed for Honda Gresini

Hector Barbera - UPDATE: Confirmed for Aspar Ducati.

Hiroshi Aoyama - Update: Coming in with Epp's new Honda team. No real talks yet, but with his good 250cc season so far and Takahashi's seat shaking heavily, he might be the next Japanese selection for MotoGP.

Tom Lüthi - Also no real talks yet, but he brings an insanely big sponsor and has the ambition to move up to MotoGP sooner or later. Maybe not next season, but teams struggling with the financing could be considering him as an option.
UPDATE - Advanced talks for Emmi Caffe Latte Honda.
UPDATE - Will stay in Moto2

Ben Spies - Confirmed in Estoril. Allegedly having possibility to join either Suzuki or Tech 3 Yamaha, but apparently there've been no serious talks and he seems to be eager to stay at least another year in WSBK and possibly win the title there first.
UPDATE - Will stay in WSBK.
UPDATE - Actually, he won't.

John Hopkins - No serious talks, only a few first questions from his management to see which seats might be available in MotoGP next year, possibly coming back.

Suter Racing Bikes - Proposed a completely new bike project with two bikes on the grid.

Do.Not.Want

I think everything you've mentioned pretty much makes sense right now! Though one thing I'm not liking so much is the amount of bikes on the grid next year from different manufacturers.

Yamaha: 4
Ducati: 5 (maybe 6...)
Suzuki: 2
Honda: 7/8, potentially one more
Kawasaki: 0

Way too many Hondas! And then besides the factory bikes, the others aren't nearly as competitive, so we're going to get the same thing happening all over again, top 4/5 are untouchable, rest are left for dust
I liked when more than one Honda team could win races and challenge for the title

Also Luthi would make a nice addition, but I don't think he's really proved his worth to the class yet. I guess its hard when Bati's there

We'll see if there'll be really some kind of extra rule for the satellite teams next season concerning engines and such, because that would definitely shake up the manufaturers and maybe even leave some open space for new ones.
So far it's really only bits and pieces what we know and so many things can still happen.

The only real sure things are the factory teams and their riders, that's pretty much all we can rely on at the moment, the future of the satellite teams and the rider switches there are basically entirely uncertain.

he doesn't crash but apart from that he's been appalling. (not including DNFs) hes finished last or second last in every race except mugello. he finished a very respectable 9th but he did spend most of last year going round it!!!!!!


i dont see why everyone thinks honda are so uncompetitive. The factory bike is slightly bit behind yamaha and stoner and de puniet (might be harsh but not the best rider in the class) is a match for the tech 3s.

hair has an obscene salary in 250s this year. All the kids in italy want to ride the same scooter as him

I don't think Spies is bothered if he goes to motogp before/after he wins a WSBK title. I think he'll happily stay with yamaha but if a competitive team in motogp matched his salary he'd jump at the chance.

cant see aoyama, luthi or hopkins getting a seat

Yeah, but Niccolo had about the same amount of experience overall when he came into the class as Gabor has now. In my opinion it's a bigger step from Superstock to MotoGP than when you come from 125cc or 250cc plus he doesn't know almost all of the tracks. When you also take into consideration where the other Ducatis except Stoner usually ended up so far this season, I think his results aren't as horrible as they show up on the time sheets.
But regardless of that, he looks to have a lot of company backing and I think at Ducati that counts more at the moment than results. The only reason why I think that Nicky could still be a factory rider next year is exactly the same thing, that Ducati seems to be keen to work with him and keep him on the ship. If the same would have applied to Marco last year there would have at least been a slim chance that he'd still be with them this year. Bayliss got "thrown out" in 2004 because he had an argument with Suppo about the future development of the bike (they gave it more power which was the only thing the bike didn't need). Long story short, Ducati always claims to be a "family" company and when they feel they want to work with a particular rider, the results matter only to a smaller degree than they usually would.

canepa has the advantage of riding the GP8 throughout last year. i think part of the reason he looks so bad is because kallio has done so well


im sure ducati will stick with hayden as well. last year when everyone said the bike was designed for stoner, he said melandri should stop moaning whilst plodding round and work his ass off trying to find solutions. everything hayden says (to the media anyone) suggests hes giving 110% and determined to be a success


in you write up you say you think onde maybe disbanded. i thought they were likely to have a second bike next year

Mmmh, haven't heard that rumour about a second Onde bike yet. I just figured that the sponsorship was very heavily based on having Sete on board. But now that I think about it, I guess it's mainly a Nieto family matter and they're probably keen to stay in the class now that they've found a place. They had the sponsorship in the 125cc class last year as well and I guess it depends on them if they want to stay there or maybe also possibly go to Moto2 with two bikes or something. In any case I gather that they'd want to go with a Spanish rider again, maybe they'll bring Fonsi Nieto back into the championship, if I remember correctly he's currently without a job.

Did Fonsi test a Moto2 bike recently or was he going to? Maybe he's moving there next year?

Yes, he did. He's been testing a Moto2 machine already and I'm not sure if he's currently riding one of those that are currently running in the Spanish Championship. While testing he stated that his intention was to win the first Moto2 title, so I gather it's quite sure thate he'll be back next year. But when Sete missed one GP due to his broken collarbone, it was rumoured that Fonsi might be his stand-in and since he's another member of the Nieto family, there are certainly close ties and possibly a contract with them for Moto2 in the works,

Apparently there's now a new possible name in the mix! Hector Barbera apparently plans to enter the MotoGP class next year, either with Honda Gresini or with Tech 3 Yamaha. It's starting to get rather crowded on the application chair for those two teams...
Anyhow, I have no idea how serious his approach is and I guess every current 250cc rider is more or less looking up to the MotoGP class right now, but we'll see how much of this will evolve into real contract talks.

Personally, I don't think it would be the right moment for him to change the class, but if he gets the chance, he'd probably do it without thinking twice.

OMG MotoGP is in a few years a war only beetween Italians and Spaniards...


SPA:
Jorge Lorenzo
Toni Elias
Sete Gibernau
Dani Pedrosa
Alvaro Bautista
Hector Barbera
Fonsi Nieto

ITA:
Valentino Rossi
Marco Simoncelli
Marco Melandri
Andrea Dovizioso
Alex de Angelis
Loris Capirossi
Niccolo Canepa


thats shit, ok, they are the best, but quite 70 % from the field only Italians and Spaniards? OMG that would suck... in every Race are only ITA and SPA on the podium...
the other nations Randy de Puniet and so on only become bad material excuse Casey Stoner...

DORNA have to chance something !!!

Both countries have always had a big contingent in GP's(50,80,125,250,500) as far back as i remember.With Germany and UK having a good amount as well.

Well nothing surprising with that, there was always a big amount of riders from those countries, more or less. Plus several Spanish and Italian sponsors spending a lot of money to the sport, they obviously want to see a rider from their own country in those teams. And dont think Capirossi and Gibernau will be there for such a long time, ok maybe next year but not few more years...

everyones going to be linked with tech 3 and gresini

unless barbera brings huge sponsors (do gresini or tech 3 even need them??) i cant see him getting one of those rides.



whats wrong with a host of spainish/italian riders? (although your list is extremely optimistic [pessimisitic? ] )
The top Spainish/Italian riders are huge stars in their countries. If you said "James Toseland" to someone in the UK theyd more than likely have no idea who he is or remember the piano at sports personaility


The futures all about "the folger" now anyway

I don't think the list you posted will ever come true though. With so few rides available in MotoGP it is more likely that some of the current riders are kicked out to make room for the new ones. As Miss B pointed out, neither Capirossi nor Gibernau will stay around for too long and everyone who doesn't bring the expected results is likely to get kicked out as well in such a competitive class.

And as the previous commenters said, the Italy-Spain thing was always there and a few years back it's been a vast number of American, British, German and also Australian riders as well, each nation dominating in particular times. It's easily explained why Italy and Spain have so many riders in the championship right now, because there's actually a huge fanbase, a set high status of the sport and in both countries there's a very good base for young riders to start on. Take the Movistar Cup from 1999, just a few of the current big names from that junior collection include Dani Pedrosa, Alvaro Bautista, Casey Stoner & Toni Elias. The enormous amount of extremely fast Spanish youngsters doesn't come from nothing. There's a host of newcomer support cups in Spain, the Spanish championship is widely regarded as the highest level right after the world championship. In Italy you have the Italian Championship and far less Rookie & Manufacturer Cups, but you have the unbelievably huge popularity of a certain Valentino Rossi for over a decade now. The kids growing up with him as their idol are now all in the right race age themselves.
Go to any other country and ask for a local MotoGP hero - you'll have trouble finding someone giving you an answer. Yes, there's Nicky Hayden and Kenny Roberts for the US, but nobody really cares for bike racing over there apparently, unless it's AMA or generally motocross. As AlvaroII said, it's the same in the UK and at any other place in the world for that matter. And the Italian and Spanish riders ARE good. If they would totally suck, there'd be no point in having them in the class, but the fact of the matter is that they are there for a reason. The question is if you rather wanted a "geographically balanced" championship where half of the field can't keep up with the front runners because they're just where they are because of their nationality or if you want a championship with the best of the best, which happen to come mainly from two countries, simply because they have better ressources to breed fast riders?

Regardless of that, Dorna actually does something about that. They've been known to support riders from "exotic" countries for several years, not least because they want to keep the market open in those countries. Vladimir Leonov is in the championship for a reason. Ratthapark Wilairot and Doni Tata Pradita where supported by Dorna when they came in. And the only reason why Alex Hofmann stayed in MotoGP for so damn long despite is devastating results was his German passport. So, Dorna tries to address the "problem" already. But to be honest, I'd rather have another Spanish or Italian rider in the class who's really fast than to waste a seat on Hofmann who runs around the back of the field all the time.

Sorry for the lengthy statement.